About Brenda Fox

This author has not yet filled in any details.
So far Brenda Fox has created 35 blog entries.

Space of Uncertainty

Uncertainty Scan Uncertainty focused Delphi has been developed for scanning for potentially disruptive drivers of the operating environment. This is a major difference to the traditional Delphi study that focuses on looking for a consensus of the expert panel about future developments. Principle The web-based scan collects all the potential drivers of the operating environment [...]

2016-07-18T03:57:28+00:00 Tools, Uncertainty|

Structural Scenarios

Structural scenarios have been developed for the foresight exercise in which we try to generate ideas about the future for the environment that we know our cognitive constraints are prominent; we know very little about the drivers that may shape the environment. Principle The idea is to generate as many different structures as possible based [...]

2016-07-18T03:59:45+00:00 Tools, Uncertainty|

Game Changer Stress Test

  The current strategy of the organization is based on the situation of the operating environment and uses the existing strengths and capabilities as a starting point. In most of the organizations, megatrends-based foresight exercise has been included in the strategy process. If, for some reason, there is a lot of uncertainty about the trend [...]

2016-07-18T04:02:56+00:00 Tools, Uncertainty|

Shocks and South Korea

Key questions being addressed: How to succeed in the world of surprises? What are the long-term national resilience requirements that emerge from the increasing uncertainties in the global physical and social environments? What kinds of concrete decisions decision makers should make now? Our collaboration partners in this project is Center for Strategic Foresight of the [...]

2016-07-18T04:05:42+00:00 Research, Shocks|

Social Mood

The social mood concept developed is based on four principal theoretical frameworks: Socionomics (Prechter 2003, Casti 2010) – how the social mood, the way a population feels about the future, biases and shapes the character and timing of social events, such as elections, political and social upheavals and economic trends (National Coordination Secretariat 2008, 143-168). [...]

2017-11-09T15:03:34+00:00 Research, Social Mood|

Complexity Gap

  When two (or more) systems are in interaction, each system has its own level of complexity, which is usually tied up with how many degrees of freedom the system has for taking independent actions at a given time. Since these levels of complexity are almost never the same, there is a complexity “gap” between [...]

2016-07-18T04:12:54+00:00 Complexity|

What Are X-Events?

Events that are: rare, surprising, and with large social impact Examples from Nature: Earthquakes, hurricanes, asteroid impacts, ice age Examples from Human Causes: Pandemic, nuclear holocaust, collapse of power grid

2016-07-18T04:15:29+00:00 Extreme Events, Research|

Seven Shocks – Finland – Project Outline

Seven Shocks – Finland Key questions being addressed: How can a small open national economy succeed in the world of surprises? Background IIASA/Xevents team has developed a unique methodology for analyzing external shocks and their potential impact on national competiveness. Seven Shocks project studied the special requirements the global economic system will set for Finland [...]

2017-11-09T15:03:34+00:00 Research, Shocks|

School of International Futures Strategic Foresight Retreat Wilton Park UK August 11th to August 15th

At SOIF retreats, you will learn about strategic foresight approaches and techniques from world-renowned experts who provide you with practical tools that are ready to use as soon as you leave. Mixing with representatives of foreign ministries, international institutions, think tanks and leading corporations, you will share perspectives and ways of thinking about the future, while [...]

2017-11-09T15:03:34+00:00 Meetings|

Case study Report: Seven Shocks and Finland

Abstract This report presents the materials, analyses, and conclusions produced during the Seven Shocks and Finland project, an activity of IIASA Exploratory Projects in June -December 2011. The primary objective of the project was to investigate the nature of the uncertainties and the resilience requirements that emerge from the complexity of the global social, political, [...]

2016-07-18T04:59:41+00:00 Shocks|