About Brenda Fox

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So far Brenda Fox has created 33 blog entries.

Game Changer Stress Test

  The current strategy of the organization is based on the situation of the operating environment and uses the existing strengths and capabilities as a starting point. In most of the organizations, megatrends-based foresight exercise has been included in the strategy process. If, for some reason, there is a lot of uncertainty about the trend [...]

Tools, Uncertainty|

Shocks and South Korea

Key questions being addressed: How to succeed in the world of surprises? What are the long-term national resilience requirements that emerge from the increasing uncertainties in the global physical and social environments? What kinds of concrete decisions decision makers should make now? Our collaboration partners in this project is Center for Strategic Foresight of the [...]

Research, Shocks|

Social Mood

The social mood concept developed is based on four principal theoretical frameworks: Socionomics (Prechter 2003, Casti 2010) – how the social mood, the way a population feels about the future, biases and shapes the character and timing of social events, such as elections, political and social upheavals and economic trends (National Coordination Secretariat 2008, 143-168). [...]

Research, Social Mood|

Complexity Gap

  When two (or more) systems are in interaction, each system has its own level of complexity, which is usually tied up with how many degrees of freedom the system has for taking independent actions at a given time. Since these levels of complexity are almost never the same, there is a complexity “gap” between [...]


What Are X-Events?

Events that are: rare, surprising, and with large social impact Examples from Nature: Earthquakes, hurricanes, asteroid impacts, ice age Examples from Human Causes: Pandemic, nuclear holocaust, collapse of power grid

Extreme Events, Research|

Seven Shocks – Finland – Project Outline

Seven Shocks – Finland Key questions being addressed: How can a small open national economy succeed in the world of surprises? Background IIASA/Xevents team has developed a unique methodology for analyzing external shocks and their potential impact on national competiveness. Seven Shocks project studied the special requirements the global economic system will set for Finland [...]

Research, Shocks|

School of International Futures Strategic Foresight Retreat Wilton Park UK August 11th to August 15th

At SOIF retreats, you will learn about strategic foresight approaches and techniques from world-renowned experts who provide you with practical tools that are ready to use as soon as you leave. Mixing with representatives of foreign ministries, international institutions, think tanks and leading corporations, you will share perspectives and ways of thinking about the future, while [...]


Case study Report: Seven Shocks and Finland

Abstract This report presents the materials, analyses, and conclusions produced during the Seven Shocks and Finland project, an activity of IIASA Exploratory Projects in June -December 2011. The primary objective of the project was to investigate the nature of the uncertainties and the resilience requirements that emerge from the complexity of the global social, political, [...]


Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition by Roger D. Jones

Abstract A mathematical model (Core Model) is presented that describes the gross dynamic behavior of the demographic transition—falling death rates lead to population increase, temporarily rising birth rates, temporarily increased population growth, decreased fertility, aging of the population, and finally a steady population size higher than the initial population. Core Model captures these features. The [...]

Complex Systems|

Former NYC Chief Urban Designer Alexandros Washburn Joins Stevens Institute of Technology Faculty

Hoboken, N.J. – Stevens Institute of Technology welcomes Alexandros Washburn as industry professor and founding director of the Center for Coastal Resilience and Urban Xcellence  (CRUX).  Formerly the chief urban designer of New York City under Mayor Michael Bloomberg and author of The Nature of Urban Design: a New York perspective on Resilience (Island Press, [...]

Old News|