SURPRISE! Confronting Unknown Unknowns As the last couple of years has dramatically shown, CHANGE IS UNAVOIDABLE. How do we trade off today’s short-term benefit against the cost of preparation for an uncertain future? This has been the all-time challenge for policymakers, CEOs, foresight planners and each of us individually. Change and uncertainty are increasing at a rapid [...]
THE WORLD AFTER COVID-19: How to improve resilience during the crisis? The Coronavirus crisis revealed how important resilience is for countries and global systems. In this document we outline concrete means for building resilience against multifaceted uncertainties that the pandemic has triggered in the global system. The approach is based on the analysis of low probability [...]
The Coronavirus Pandemic and Potential Implications Executive Summary The coronavirus pandemic is an X-event (extreme event) that has impacted many aspects of our global society. The conclusions in this whitepaper are the result of applying systems analysis and foresight methods to look at a post-Coronavirus world. The objective of the analysis is to provide actionable [...]
What will the world look like post crisis? This scenario space identifies 5 key issues & alternative ways in which these key issues may develop between now and 2025. A framework for developing resilient strategies by Eidos Partners.
The Coronavirus Pandemic and Structural Changes in the Global Economy We are facing a possible recession that is similar in magnitude to the depression of the 1930s. The coronavirus crisis is changing lives around the world. What are the implications for the global economy? Which new behaviors will become permanent and in what respect might [...]
The Corona Virus Pandemic and Potential Implications Executive Summary The coronavirus pandemic is an X-Event (extreme event) that has impacted many aspects of our global society. The conclusions in this whitepaper are the result of applying systems analysis and foresight methods to look at a post-Coronavirus world. The objective of the analysis is to provide [...]
The anticipation of an X-event is a bit like weather-forecasting. We take the drivers of atmospheric change, quantities like temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind velocities and the like, and use mathematical equations governing the change of these quantities to come up with a forecast like, “twenty percent chance of rain tomorrow.” Here we might think [...]
Approaching an X-Event in the Forrest Industry by Wilenius Markku Presented at the Global X-Network Annual Conference in Vienna April 2014 Download Presentation
X-Events in Social Processes At a random moment in time, the generic behavior of any social system is to be in a trending pattern. In other words, if you ask how will things look tomorrow, the answer is that they will be just a bit better or a bit worse than today, depending on whether [...]
Events that are: rare, surprising, and with large social impact Examples from Nature: Earthquakes, hurricanes, asteroid impacts, ice age Examples from Human Causes: Pandemic, nuclear holocaust, collapse of power grid
