Uncertainty is increasing but decisions have to be made daily
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Confronting Unknown Unknowns
As the last couple of years has dramatically shown, CHANGE IS UNAVOIDABLE. How do we trade off today’s short-term benefit against the cost of preparation for an uncertain future? This has been the all-time challenge for policymakers, CEOs, foresight planners and each of us individually. Change and uncertainty are increasing at a rapid pace – pandemics, new types of war, political unrest, supply chain breakages, climate change, inflation, crime, and the disruption/displacement of people worldwide. And this is all happening simultaneously!
Our work will address why shocks to human social systems and infrastructure are an unavoidable part of life, and how we can organize our societies and our lives today to benefit from such shocks. We will investigate the entire story starting from the way events happen to early-warning signals to what kinds of actions can be taken today to mitigate and benefit from the effects of unknowable shocks to our way of life. We will also explore why these shocks and disruptions can be great opportunities for growth and new possibilities. [READ MORE]
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According to the recently adopted United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, every country has to “Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.” This policy simulation game aims at generating ideas on how to do just that.
Ms. Ana Jones an Urban Scientist and Project Leader from Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) currently produces Greening Urban Futures Podcasts which is a research-based living forum that builds on the notion of nature-intelligence and cross-collaborative design as the basis upon which the well-being of future societies relies. One of her most recent podcasts is From “Smart” City to Intelligent Communities-The Espoo Story in which she invited Päivi Sutinen, the Director of the City as a Service Development at the City of Espoo to share the Espoo Story with us and how the network structure of Espoo is supporting transformation towards a sustainable future.
THE WORLD AFTER COVID-19: How to improve resilience during the crisis?
The Coronavirus crisis revealed how important resilience is for countries and global systems. In this document we outline concrete means for building resilience against multifaceted uncertainties that the pandemic has triggered in the global system. The approach is based on the analysis of low probability and high impact shocks using a method developed by the Global X-Network, a multi-disciplinary network of international researchers.
The members the Global X-Network use foresight tools, like extreme scenario planning, to help governments and companies identify practical strategies and tactics to build resiliency. Being resilient means not only absorbing future shocks and X-Events but being able to adapt and grow stronger. The attached Resilience Assessment is a high-level overview of the Global X-Network process for building resilience in a post-coronavirus world. If you would like to learn how we can help your organization, please contact us.
The method we have used is designed for long-term planning in environments dominated by uncertainty. The ultimate goal of this foresight exercise is to support governments and organizations in their decision making right now, in the middle of the crisis. The optimization challenge we address is to find the best solution to both meet the requirements of the current […]
What will the world look like post crisis?
This scenario space identifies 5 key issues & alternative ways in which these key issues may develop between now and 2025. A framework for developing resilient strategies by Eidos Partners.
The Corona Virus Pandemic and Potential Implications
Executive Summary
The coronavirus pandemic is an X-Event (extreme event) that has impacted many aspects of our global society. The conclusions in this whitepaper are the result of applying systems analysis and foresight methods to look at a post-Coronavirus world. The objective of the analysis is to provide actionable information that can form the basis of public policy to increase society’s resilience to negative “aftershocks” that may lead to further instability.
The multi-step analysis began by identifying the areas of our society that are now the most dynamic and uncertain and using those as the basis to analyse three scenarios. Finally, a more detailed systems analysis was conducted on the LOW probability, HIGH impact scenario defined as “What if unemployment remained at 30% or higher for longer than one year?” Analyzing this type of scenario helps identify effective policy measures to mitigate the impact of the scenario, even if it only partially materializes.
Key Findings
1. Analysis of the Coronavirus systems map identified a number of uncertainties that have been created. These include the impact on populism, nationalism’s impact on social stability, the impact on the role of China, and the availability of external funding for governments. These uncertainties impact central components of […]
Global X-Network Centers
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News and Recent Posts
“I am an assiduous reader of John Casti’s books. He is a real scientific intellectual.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan
“Casti provides thought-provoking speculation on the future of civilization.” —Kirkus Reviews
“One of America’s greatest pioneers of simulation, Casti has spent his career trying to simulate the real world in the virtual one – from games theory to traffic simulation and even insect infestations.” —London Times
“Casti is at his best in presenting difficult philosophical ideas enthusiastically and lucidly, and in presenting everyday examples to illustrate them… Entertaining and absorbing.” —New York Times Book Review
The Stevens Institute of Technology Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises (CCSE) has joined the X-Center Network as the research center in the US.