SURPRISE! Confronting Unknown Unknowns As the last couple of years has dramatically shown, CHANGE IS UNAVOIDABLE. How do we trade off today’s short-term benefit against the cost of preparation for an uncertain future? This has been the all-time challenge for policymakers, CEOs, foresight planners and each of us individually. Change and uncertainty are increasing at a rapid [...]
THE WORLD AFTER COVID-19: How to improve resilience during the crisis? The Coronavirus crisis revealed how important resilience is for countries and global systems. In this document we outline concrete means for building resilience against multifaceted uncertainties that the pandemic has triggered in the global system. The approach is based on the analysis of low probability [...]
The Coronavirus Pandemic and Structural Changes in the Global Economy We are facing a possible recession that is similar in magnitude to the depression of the 1930s. The coronavirus crisis is changing lives around the world. What are the implications for the global economy? Which new behaviors will become permanent and in what respect might [...]
Uncertainty Scan Uncertainty focused Delphi has been developed for scanning for potentially disruptive drivers of the operating environment. This is a major difference to the traditional Delphi study that focuses on looking for a consensus of the expert panel about future developments. Principle The web-based scan collects all the potential drivers of the operating environment [...]
Structural scenarios have been developed for the foresight exercise in which we try to generate ideas about the future for the environment that we know our cognitive constraints are prominent; we know very little about the drivers that may shape the environment. Principle The idea is to generate as many different structures as possible based [...]
The current strategy of the organization is based on the situation of the operating environment and uses the existing strengths and capabilities as a starting point. In most of the organizations, megatrends-based foresight exercise has been included in the strategy process. If, for some reason, there is a lot of uncertainty about the trend [...]
