SURPRISE!
Confronting Unknown Unknowns

As the last couple of years has dramatically shown, CHANGE IS UNAVOIDABLE. How do we trade off today’s short-term benefit against the cost of preparation for an uncertain future? This has been the all-time challenge for policymakers, CEOs, foresight planners and each of us individually. Change and uncertainty are increasing at a rapid pace – pandemics, new types of war, political unrest, supply chain breakages, climate change, inflation, crime, and the disruption/displacement of people worldwide. And this is all happening simultaneously!

Our work will address why shocks to human social systems and infrastructure are an unavoidable part of life, and how we can organize our societies and our lives today to benefit from such shocks. We will investigate the entire story starting from the way events happen to early-warning signals to what kinds of actions can be taken today to mitigate and benefit from the effects of unknowable shocks to our way of life.  We will also explore why these shocks and disruptions can be great opportunities for growth and new possibilities.  Surprise! presents the case that X-events/shocks are an unavoidable part of the process of growth and change, at both the personal and societal levels. This point of view reframes the issue as being one of managing X-events as opposed to focusing on how to avoid them.

We will highlight the limitations of traditional long-range scenario planning, which is focused on managing risk and trying to avoid it. The theory of surprise goes much further. It is about embracing uncertainty and thinking about how to turn surprises into opportunities. This may seem like a subtle difference. But it is profound. Managing risk is critical to an organization’s survival – you can’t grow if you’re wiped out by a surprise – but the theory of surprise is about more than survival. It is about transforming and growing stronger after a shock.

We are launching an online community to create a group of people interested in understanding how to embrace uncertainty. As members of this community, we will work together to build the theory of surprise, as well as seek ways to engage with organizations to help them incorporate Surprise! into their business and research initiatives.  

If you would like to know more and perhaps even join the community, please Contact Us.

Global X-Network – Confidential – 20221101