The Corona Virus Pandemic and Potential Implications

Executive Summary
The coronavirus pandemic is an X-Event (extreme event) that has impacted many aspects of our global society. The conclusions in this whitepaper are the result of applying systems analysis and foresight methods to look at a post-Coronavirus world. The objective of the analysis is to provide actionable information that can form the basis of public policy to increase society’s resilience to negative “aftershocks” that may lead to further instability.
The multi-step analysis began by identifying the areas of our society that are now the most dynamic and uncertain and using those as the basis to analyse three scenarios. Finally, a more detailed systems analysis was conducted on the LOW probability, HIGH impact scenario defined as “What if unemployment remained at 30% or higher for longer than one year?” Analyzing this type of scenario helps identify effective policy measures to mitigate the impact of the scenario, even if it only partially materializes.

Key Findings
1. Analysis of the Coronavirus systems map identified a number of uncertainties that have been created. These include the impact on populism, nationalism’s impact on social stability, the impact on the role of China, and the availability of external funding for governments. These uncertainties impact central components of the systems map (Figure 1), such as the stability of government and financial systems, unemployment, stability of society, status of global governance, and migration. The three components at the highest risk of rapid decline are the stability of society, government, and financial systems.
2. The three scenarios analysed used the uncertainties identified above as the parameters and were based on a 3-month pandemic, 6-month pandemic, and a 12-18-month pandemic. The results from the 3-month and 6-month scenarios suggest that governments should focus on transparent communication, building confidence that they will do “whatever it takes” to support individuals and the economy, addressing people’s level of panic and fear for their future, and being conscious that “have nots” may develop a scarcity mentality that leads to unrest.
3. The detailed systems analysis of the third scenario (12-18 month pandemic with 30%+ unemployment) suggests that the central components of the system include radicalisation, unemployment, anger at institutions, multi-year cycle of the virus, decrease in household income, and society pulls together. The dynamics of the systems map (Figure 2) suggest that once radicalisation is triggered it will be difficult to stop. The component of “society pulls together” counterbalances radicalisation and helps keep it from growing rapidly.
4. Preventing radicalisation involves a two-part policy approach. First, the development of policy initiatives that address the components that contribute to radicalisation (Figure 3) can decrease the likelihood of radicalisation being triggered. Second, policy initiatives that increase the impact of the “society pulls together” component will balance against radicalisation. Policy examples include transparent communication and actions, supporting the positive perception of institutions, and building societal commitment to the government’s plans for managing the pandemic.
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