The Coronavirus Pandemic and Potential Implications

Executive Summary

The coronavirus pandemic is an X-event (extreme event) that has impacted many aspects of our global society. The conclusions in this whitepaper are the result of applying systems analysis and foresight methods to look at a post-Coronavirus world. The objective of the analysis is to provide actionable information that can form the basis of public policy to increase society’s resilience to negative “aftershocks” that may lead to further instability.

The multi-step analysis began by identifying the areas of our society that are now the most dynamic and uncertain and using those as the basis to analyse three scenarios. Finally, a more detailed systems analysis was conducted on the LOW probability, HIGH impact scenario defined as “What if unemployment remained at 30% or higher for longer than one year?” Analysing this type of scenario helps identify effective policy measures to mitigate the impact of the scenario, even if it only partially materialises.