What Are X-Events?
Events that are: rare, surprising, and with large social impact Examples from Nature: Earthquakes, hurricanes, asteroid impacts, ice age Examples from Human Causes: Pandemic, nuclear holocaust, collapse of power grid
Seven Shocks – Finland – Project Outline
Seven Shocks – Finland Key questions being addressed: How can a small open national economy succeed in the world of surprises? Background IIASA/Xevents team has developed a unique methodology for analyzing external shocks and their potential impact on national competiveness. Seven Shocks project studied the special requirements the global economic system will set for Finland [...]
School of International Futures Strategic Foresight Retreat Wilton Park UK August 11th to August 15th
At SOIF retreats, you will learn about strategic foresight approaches and techniques from world-renowned experts who provide you with practical tools that are ready to use as soon as you leave. Mixing with representatives of foreign ministries, international institutions, think tanks and leading corporations, you will share perspectives and ways of thinking about the future, while [...]
Case study Report: Seven Shocks and Finland
Abstract This report presents the materials, analyses, and conclusions produced during the Seven Shocks and Finland project, an activity of IIASA Exploratory Projects in June -December 2011. The primary objective of the project was to investigate the nature of the uncertainties and the resilience requirements that emerge from the complexity of the global social, political, [...]
Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition by Roger D. Jones
Abstract A mathematical model (Core Model) is presented that describes the gross dynamic behavior of the demographic transition—falling death rates lead to population increase, temporarily rising birth rates, temporarily increased population growth, decreased fertility, aging of the population, and finally a steady population size higher than the initial population. Core Model captures these features. The [...]
Roger D. Jones – US Healthcare as a Complex System
Roger D. Jones December 10, 2013 Condensed from a presentation to the Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises at the Stevens Institute of Technology on November 12, 2013 Healthcare is so complicated Healthcare in the U.S. is complicated. There are dozens of components: hospitals, hospices, assisted living facilities, nursing homes, home care, pharmacies, pharmaceutical companies, [...]