The Coronavirus Pandemic and Potential Implications Executive Summary The coronavirus pandemic is an X-event (extreme event) that has impacted many aspects of our global society. The conclusions in this whitepaper are the result of applying systems analysis and foresight methods to look at a post-Coronavirus world. The objective of the analysis is to provide actionable [...]
The Corona Virus Pandemic and Potential Implications Executive Summary The coronavirus pandemic is an X-Event (extreme event) that has impacted many aspects of our global society. The conclusions in this whitepaper are the result of applying systems analysis and foresight methods to look at a post-Coronavirus world. The objective of the analysis is to provide [...]
This paper serves as the final report of the Game Changers project lead by John Casti and coordinated by Leena Ilmola. The project was established towards the end of 2009 as a part of the Extreme Events in Human Society initiative at IIASA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria). Download
Abstract A mathematical model (Core Model) is presented that describes the gross dynamic behavior of the demographic transition—falling death rates lead to population increase, temporarily rising birth rates, temporarily increased population growth, decreased fertility, aging of the population, and finally a steady population size higher than the initial population. Core Model captures these features. The [...]
