X-Events in Social Processes
At a random moment in time, the generic behavior of any social system is to be in a trending pattern. In other words, if you ask how will things look tomorrow, the answer is that they will be just a bit better or a bit worse than today, depending on whether the trend at the moment us moving up or down. This is what makes trend-following so appealing: It’s easy and it’s almost always right—except when it isn’t.